Am I rooting for the Colts?

It started with the Pats-Colts game when the Colts defense was able to stymie Brady for about 3 quarters. And then after coming back from vacation and watching the Pats play the Eagles and the Ravens on the same day (thanks to the magic of TiVo), it really started to hit me: these 2007 Patriots are eerily similar to a few teams I spent a lot of time despising: the 2004 and 2005 Colts.

All the components are there: golden boy quarterback with speedy wideouts, suspect defense benefitting from huge leads, and way too much hype surrounding how good they are. I hated those Colts because a) they were good, but they were pretty smug about it, b) they would whine when they got pushed around by a physical team, and c) they seemed to buy into the hype about how good they were. The 2007 Patriots are definitely smug, they've definitely been pushed around in recent weeks, but at least they're not pretending they're unbeatable.

But worst of all is that those Colts had trouble in the postseason because physical defenses would slow down their high-flying offense, and their defense had trouble playing from behind against a ball control offense.

I can think of few things more embarrassing for the Patriots than for them to lose in this same fashion during the postseason, yet this is they way I see them going down (if they do go down). Well, maybe some sort of cheating scandal would be more embarrassing...but I digress. I don't know why, but the trend over the past few years certainly seems to be that teams leaning too heavily on their passing offense have trouble getting through the playoffs. The anemic Patriots running game is also cause for worry. Meanwhile, the Colts seem to be under the radar, winning with strong defense and an unspectacular offense a la the Patriots' Super Bowl teams. Ugh....I'm really not liking where this is headed.

As far as this weekend's game against the Steelers, I'm not afraid to admit that I'm worried. The Steelers appear to match up pretty well against the Pats, and not only did they end the last Patriots' win streak, they defeated the 2005 Colts! They have a tough, physical defense, a strong running game, and a quarterback who's good enough to keep the chains moving. I would not be too surprised if the Steelers could pull off the victory here.

My only source of consolation is that I always worry about the Steelers for these same reasons, and the Pats almost always handle them when it matters. But the good thing is that I won't be too upset if they lose; in fact, I'll go so far to say that it's probably better for the Pats in the long run if they lose, since they seem to need a dose of humility. I say this because despite the incessant talk on ESPN, I don't place much importance in an undefeated season. Sure it would be a nice footnote on the season, but the Patriots dynasty has far more to gain by winning their 4th Super Bowl this decade than by having one season in which they beat all comers during the regular season. After all, either event would guarantee the Patriots' place in history.

(Note: I feel a little bit different about Brady's assault on the single-season TD record. I want him to get it. I really want him to get it. And readers of this space probably know why: because it would be sweet for him to take it from Manning and shut up the doubters who always pointed to Brady's stats as evidence that he wasn't in Manning's class. I have to admit that I probably wouldn't care about this record if I hadn't had to hear all about how incredible Manning was in 2004. And at the time, I thought that it was more likely for Manning to win a Super Bowl than for Brady to ever equal that record.)

I'll close with some Patriot observations:

-After the Ravens game, it seems that the book on the Pats defense is to wear down their aging linebackers. While there's no doubt these guys are getting up there in age, I suspect Monday was more of mental breakdown (from the entire front seven) than a physical one. The Patriots have been very stout against the run all season, and I think this one game is more of an aberration than a trend.

-Seymour still looks hurt. Hopefully he gets better.

-My Laurence Maroney man crush is fading. There's no doubt he has some running ability, but he can't seem to string a good game together. And it's not a good sign when the coaches seem to trust Faulk more than Maroney to pick up the tough yards. Could it be that he's just not that good?

-If Donte Stallworth is so good, why doesn't he get the ball more? I think we'll be saying goodbye to him after this season. Randy Moss may be a free agent, but he's not going anywhere.

-Speaking of saying goodbye, it looks like Asante Samuel is again playing himself into a nice lucrative contract...somewhere else. He's going to want to be overpaid somewhere, and it won't be in New England.

-Apparently, punter Chris Hanson is leading the Pro Bowl voting at his position. Seriously? A few weeks ago, this guy didn't even have enough punt attempts to qualify for the league leaders! And he has been mediocre at best. If he goes to the Pro Bowl, Brian Moorman is going to be pissed. That guy punted a ball 70 yards earlier this year!

-Prediction for this Sunday? I'll say Patriots 30, Steelers 21.