Thursday, November 02, 2006

Patriots-Colts


It's Patriots vs. Colts on the Sunday night game this week. Usually an extremely hyped up game, and this one is no exception. The Colts are 7-0 (though no one is talking about an undefeated season this time), and the Patriots are coming off of a Monday night game where they totally manhandled up-and-coming Minnesota.

First off, I'm a Patriots fan. I always liked football as a kid, but never regularly watched until the 2001 season, when I lived in Boston. That was the year that Bill Belichick pulled off probably the best coaching job of anyone in any professional sport EVER. That's quite a statement, but I don't think it's a big stretch. If memory serves, the Patriots signed 16 free agents that year, many of which were minimum-salary contracts. 16 players! And most of those guys were players that nobody else wanted. Antowain Smith, Roman Phifer, David Patten, Mike Vrabel, Bryan Cox, Anthony Pleasant, Bobby Hamilton....hardly marquee names. Yet these guys played out of their minds and together were greater than the sum of their parts. The Patriots finished the year by winning their last 9 games, including the Super Bowl. With guys that nobody else wanted! Despite the accolades showered upon Belichick that year, I still think that he didn't get nearly enough credit for what I consider the best single-season coaching job...EVER.

(I'd be remiss if I didn't admit that luck was a big factor that year. Like when Patten was knocked unconscious and fumbled the ball during OT at Buffalo, but the Patriots retained possession because his helmet touched the ball while his foot was out of bounds. Like when Brady fumbled the ball on a crucial play against Oakland, but it was ruled an incomplete pass by the now infamous "tuck rule." Like when the Pats blocked a FG attempt in Pittsburgh, and Troy Brown lateralled to Antwan Harris (who?) to score a TD. No question, they got a lot of breaks that season.)

Since that time, the Patriots are a remarkable 6-1 against the Colts. There's a perception that the Patriots own the Colts, but that is somewhat inaccurate. Most of the regular season games were close and could have gone either way. But in the playoffs, the Patriots have thoroughly dominated the Colts. It would be easy to say that the Colts' porous defense has been the difference in this matchup, but the truth is that it's been Peyton Manning's inability to generate points for his offense.

Manning apologists claim that his team let him down, or that his defense wasn't good enough to win with. While it's true that the defense has never been great, in 2003, they allowed only 1 TD to the Patriots (along with 5 field goals), and in 2004, they had only allowed 6 points at halftime. The bottom line is that Manning failed to produce points for his team when it mattered the most. If you credit the Colts success to Peyton's masterful orchestration of the offense (which includes the playcalling), then you have no choice but to hold him largely accountable for their catastrophic failures as well.

All of which leads us to this weekend's game. The Colts' run defense this year has been unbelievably bad. Bad run defenses give up about 100-150 yards during a game. The Colts defense has given up more than 200 yards rushing in several games this season!

On the flip side, the Patriots' defense has been pretty stingy this year, and they're only getting better. I believe they're only allowing ~11 points a game. This performance has been against some lousy offenses though, so I don't expect them to shut down the Colts. But I think they'll be effective enough to force a few punts and allow the Patriots' offense to get ahead and win the game. This is going to be a pretty high scoring affair. I'll call it: Patriots 27, Colts 21.

Next post...more on Manning....and why he sucks.

Today's meal selection:
Breakfast: The unsinkable taste of Cheerios
Lunch: Sushi bento box, minus the tempura
Dinner: Brown rice and chicken breast (cooked on a George Foreman grill)