Why am I buying this again?
I've recently had a few discussions with some friends about BluRay and HD-DVD, and the question always seems to be the same: which one will dominate the marketplace? Which format do I side with? My answer: neither.
It's not that I dislike the concept of next gen media formats--I think they're great. It's just that if we're trying to predict which one will get widespread adoption, isn't presumptuous to think that the public will actually embrace a new media format? After all, what is the real incentive here?
When you get down to it, what advantages does BluRay offer when it comes to movies? As far as I can tell, the main ones are: a) much higher data capacity, which means movies can be stored in High Definition, and b) Better copy protection, which makes the movie studios happy (but probably annoys consumers).
While I can certainly envision several people I know racing out to buy a BluRay player to take advantage of watching high-definition movies, it's a bigger leap for me to imagine average Joes shelling out big bucks for this. Even though the prices for HD TVs keep dropping, there is still a huge investment to take advantage of BluRay, especially since it's only been about 7 years since DVDs replaced VHS as the dominant format.
Why won't BluRay replace DVD just like DVD replaced VHS? DVD had numerous advantages over DVD that consumers embraced: a) better picture quality and sound, b) more compact, c) ability to skip forward or ahead (i.e. no more need to rewind), and d) ability to add special features like audio commentary, subtitles, etc. Ultimately, DVD enhanced the movie watching experience in so many ways that consumers would pay for a DVD player (probably about $300-400 in the "early" days).
But with BluRay, we're talking about $1000 to buy a player, and this is assuming you've already invested in the TV. Just to get a better picture, but no other value-add. Why should I, or anyone else, get excited about this? The most common response to my skepticism has been, "Haven't you seen the picture that BluRay gives you? It's amazing!" Probably true. But DVD Audio and SACD formats were also a amazing upgrade in audio, and those formats never quite took off either.
This isn't to say that people won't eventually be ready for BluRay. It may take years, but eventually players will get cheaper and HDTVs will be more common. But by the time that happens, it's not too hard to imagine that some other new format will have appeared and brought something more to the table. Perhaps this is more a matter of market timing than anything else, but I just can't see the general public getting excited about BluRay OR HD-DVD.
On a final note, conversations I have with people about BluRay are usually linked to the Sony PS3 and its BluRay capability. Let me say now that when it comes to the video game console wars, it's pretty easy to make a case that Nintendo has already won this battle. Wii has sold three times the number of PS3s, and they're STILL not available in stores. Not saying that one's better than the other, just that it's easy to see which console is going to grab the biggest slice of the video gaming pie.
3 Comments:
Forget PS3 etc. The reason why next-gen DVD is here to stay is because the companies want it to. They can cut down piracy, which is a big incentive for them.
The only other benefit that I can see (which is very marginal) is that things like TV series on disc are fewer discs.
I predict the winner (and there will be a transition to this format) will come down to a) whichever type of drive is installed on laptops and b) whichever format the adult film industry adopts.
The adult industry typically guides technology changes (video distribution on the internet?) and I think the laptops are highly responsible for DVD's rise, for some of the reasons you stated (ie portability, etc).
If the price point for next gen DVD discs decreases closer to that of DVD's, then I think it will improve in the consumer market.
It's true - the quality changes are reminiscent of the pressure to adopt laserdisc - also a superior format but never popular. But I think here, the movie studios are on board, they fear the internet / bittorrent distribution of movies and they don't want to become like the record industry. They have retail outlets and hardware companies on board too.
The other thing, is technically you wouldn't have to re-buy your old movies - the new players all play the old stuff, so it's not like VHS --> DVD where a new piece of hardware is required.
I don't understand the reasoning behind "this will succeed because the companies selling it want it to." Seems to me that the consumers have the power in this particular case. Studios may badly want next-gen DVD to be adopted, but ultimately they cannot realistically force a new format on consumers. They are the ones who must cater to consumers, not the other way around. History shows that it's not easy to successfully propagate a new media format.
It will depend on how much price incentives these companies are willing to give consumers to adopt the new format. It's unclear to me if they are willing to invest enough capital to be successful--the two different formats complicates this equation as well.
On another note, does the adult industry REALLY guide technology changes? I hear this all the time, and on the surface it makes sense, but I have had difficulty verifying this to be factual, especially in the case of DVD.
Even if it is historically true, I don't think you can blindly say that adult entertainment is the trailblazer in this case. VHS allowed customers to watch taboo content in private instead of public theaters. Internet video distribution allowed customers convenient, pseudo-anonymous access. Does high-def video offer a significant value-add for the viewers of adult entertainment? Perhaps, but not as much as the aforementioned formats.
Adult industry - I was mistaken about this. I had read somewhere that the adult film industry adopted VHS over Betamax, and that guided the success of VHS. Per wikipedia, this is not true. But the point was that there were other pressures guiding choices of VHS over Betamax (not the adoption of home video in general) that were not necessarily related to video quality.
You say historically it is hard to convert people to a new format but the only examples of such media changes I can think of are in music: vinyl --> 8 track --> audio cassette --> CD --> MP3 / DVD audio or in film: VHS/Betamax --> Laserdisc --> DVD --> next gen DVD. Most of time the new format was adopted.
One incentive the studios can offer is releasing the movies on the next gen format earlier than regular DVD. They can also opt not to offer less mainstream films on DVD down the line. The studios' fear of movie piracy is a real and serious one. They will continue to market the next-gen DVD's however possible until they can get them through. It will also be curious to see if someone ends up cracking the copy protection for these formats, and how that may change the scenario.
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