McCain deserves to lose

Barring some major event that changes the landscape of the presidential election, it looks like Barack Obama will be elected the next president come Election Day. A quick look at fivethirtyeight.com provides some compelling evidence that this is true.

Which got me thinking today about how McCain managed to lose the election. Not that he really SHOULD have won it, but when you step back and examine his campaign, it's not hard to see where he made some critical errors.

First, he was already fighting an uphill battle by being the post-Bush Republican nominee. Arguably, nearly any Republican candidate would have had it rough. Not really an error in judgment, just horrible timing.

Second, the Democrats' assertion that he was "out of touch" pretty much proved to be correct. How else can you explain his choice to use "Joe the Plumber" as a symbol of his campaign? The intent was to use Joe as a shining example of how an average working American would be adversely affected by Obama's policies, yet McCain could not have chosen a worse horse to hitch his wagon to. Within one day, Joe was exposed to be a) not a licensed plumber, b) not a typical working-class American, and c) almost completely ignorant on most major campaign issues (his recent comments on Israel would be hilarious if they weren't so tragic). Virtually no one regards "Joe the Plumber" as a sympathetic everyman.

Lastly, McCain proved to be inept at running a negative campaign. The attacks on Kerry in 2004 were effective because they preyed on real flaws; the flip-flopper characterization comes to mind here. McCain's constant attempts to make something out of nothing with the David Ayers associations proved to be beyond futile. If the idea was to turn Obama into a dangerous radical, it would have been a lot easier if Obama actually had a serious radical past (which, as it turns out, he doesn't). So ultimately, the centerpiece of the negative campaign proved to be built on a weak foundation at best.

Though some will point to the Palin nomination as a serious error in judgment, I actually don't think so. For all her flaws, she has done what she was supposed to do--energize the base and create excitement where there previously was none. Her nomination was always a high-risk, high-reward gamble, and ultimately, this act of desperation did not pan out. One could argue that if her Couric interview had not been so disastrous, she would not have become the liability that she is today.

So long, John McCain. Maybe now you can go back to being the guy you used to be.